Is retail theft up, or is it down? Is the problem as rampant as many retailers claim it to be, or are the claims of devastating losses, organized retail crime, violent confrontations, and their impact on store safety and retail profits over-exaggerated in an attempt to cover poor performance and corporate mismanagement? Perhaps more to the point, why is there such a tremendous gap between these conflicting points of view? As is the case with so many things, the real answers are hidden in plain view. While one may argue that numbers don’t lie, they don’t always tell the whole truth.
Getting to the Truth
“When the Council of Criminal Justice issued their report that claimed shoplifting was down in major cities across the country, we knew that not to be true,” reveals Lisa LaBruno, executive director at the RILA Communities Foundation. “So, we started asking ourselves, how did this mixed messaging happen? We wanted to get to the bottom of it.”
As part of her work with the RILA-NDAA Vibrant Communities Initiative, Associate Professor Julie Hibdon with Southern Illinois University was asked to research the discrepancy, along with the trends that resulted from this mixed messaging. “I think the story behind what’s happening with retail theft events is more complicated than it might appear on the surface,” said Professor Hibdon. “There are a lot of factors that can directly and indirectly influence what, how, and to what extent these crimes are being reported.”
The Survey: Numbers Tell the Story
With the help of RILA and its Asset Protection Leaders Council (APLC), a survey was sent to member companies to compare their recorded external theft activity with what they documented as reported to law enforcement from 2019 through 2023.”
Findings reveal a notable disparity between external thefts documented within the retail organizations as compared to those documented as reported to law enforcement, underscoring the prevalence of underreporting within the retail sector.
- Overall, when assessing the trends of external theft events recorded in internal systems compared to what is reported to law enforcement, the findings indicate a drastic increase in external theft, with the biggest increase occurring between 2021 and 2022.
- The reporting rate of external theft events indicates very few retail theft events are reported to law enforcement, and despite increases in external theft recorded in stores, the rate being reported has essentially declined to about half of what was reported prior to the pandemic.
- Over the past five years, reporting rates have declined for mass/big box and grocery retailers, while specialty retailers show increases in their reporting rates to law enforcement. The improved reporting rate for specialty retailers is likely due to increased reporting and not necessarily a declining number of events.
- On average, retailers reported a 32 percent increase in dollar loss from 2019 to 2023. Additionally, the average of net unit losses across retailers increased for every year, more than doubling between 2019 and 2023.
In summary, theft incidents are up dramatically in the stores surveyed while those incidents reported to law enforcement have been cut in half between 2019 and 2023. Dollar losses are a third higher, and the amount of merchandise lost has doubled.
“The primary conclusions indicate that while the law enforcement data is showing reductions in retail theft, the retailer data is showing the opposite,” shares Hibdon. “It’s reflecting substantial increases. It’s not that retail theft is going down—the retailer sentiment is that this is a growing problem and has exploded post-pandemic. All of this is supported by the data we collected and the interviews held with these retailers.”
“Furthermore, there’s a lot of shared sentiment from all involved that there is a clear need for more accurate reporting,” she continues. “All of the retailer data we gathered is supporting the things that retailers have been saying regarding the loss issues and ultimately the increase in retail theft. Unfortunately, due to the issues with under-reporting this is simply not being communicated to the extent that it should.”
Putting It All Together
When it comes to the reporting of retail theft the story remains layered—but those layers can’t be used to blanket the true message. There are a multitude of reasons why retail theft is difficult to quantify, but that doesn’t mean we can’t take steps to make reporting easier, more meaningful, and more productive.
Recoiling from uncomfortable facts rarely leads to better outcomes; and for retailers, law enforcement, solution providers, and communities to better address retail crime, more accurate reporting is necessary. Ensuring we have the information we need must be the first step if we want to make intelligent and meaningful decisions to keep our stores and communities safe and secure.
Look for our exclusive interview and the complete article in the upcoming Spring 2025 edition of LP Magazine.
If you are interested in downloading the full report from the Retail Industry Leaders Association, click here.