Drawve is the VP of Research and Innovation for CAP Index—the pioneer and leader in crime risk forecasting—and has over ten years of experience in applied environmental criminology and crime analysis research. Palmer is CAP Index’s COO/EVP, with over thirty-five years of hands-on experience in the AP industry. Drawve and Palmer can be reached at gdrawve@capindex.com and wpalmer@capindex.com
This is part three of our conversation with Walter Palmer and Dr. Grant Drawve, PhD, of CAP Index. In this discussion, we focus on how time also matters in the discussion of risky places.
LPM: During our last conversation, we focused on how “place matters” in terms of crime at specific places. What about time?
Grant Drawve: Time absolutely matters but when it comes to risk, we tend to think spatial first and time secondarily. Crime’s temporal patterns—variation depending on season, day of week, and time of day—become incredibly important when planning security measures to mitigate risk.
Walter Palmer: From a retailer’s perspective, recognizing these temporal patterns can focus and optimize loss prevention strategies. For example, they can allocate staff more efficiently, schedule security patrols during high-risk periods, and implement targeted measures like increased lighting or surveillance during peak crime times.
LPM: Could you give us an example of the time of day as it relates to the occurrence of crime?
Drawve: Sure, let’s look at Dallas, comparing daytime and nighttime crime at retailers in Q1, 2024. Almost twice as many crimes occur during the day (1,131 to 661), which is expected based on typical hours of operation. The interesting part is when we look at crime types. There were 539 shoplifting incidents during daytime hours and only 166 at night. Conversely, there were only nineteen daytime burglaries but 144 at night. In another example, looking at hotels and motels, person and property crimes are more prevalent during the night than during the day (219 vs. 119). These patterns in the data indicate that bad actors are considering both time and place to identify their best opportunities for crime.
Palmer: These insights optimize security by identifying potential cost savings. Given the low incidence of shoplifting at night, retailers might reduce or stop daytime-focused security measures after closing, think on-floor security staff and active customer monitoring systems. They may reallocate resources toward nighttime security needs, like enhanced alarms, improved locks, and better exterior lighting to prevent burglaries. By discontinuing redundant daytime security assets during non-operational hours, retailers can manage security budgets more efficiently while maintaining effective protection against crime.
LPM: So, how should organizations think about time when planning and implementing security measures?
Drawve: There are two types of time we need to consider: “regular” time and “unique” time events. “Regular” time refers to normal, ongoing periods. During these times, it’s essential to implement long-term strategic initiatives aimed at reducing inherent risk. This means allocating resources based on time-specific data—such as deploying guards during high-risk periods or reinforcing security measures for certain products at specific times of the day. “Unique” time events include holidays or special occurrences. During these periods, businesses should adopt tactical measures to respond to the increased risk. For example, during holidays, large events, or natural disasters, there is a heightened need for enhanced security.
Striking a balance between strategic risk mitigation and tactical responses is crucial. This approach ensures resources are deployed effectively, preventing a reactive “whack-a-mole” approach where resources are hastily scrambled to address issues as they arise, potentially missing critical vulnerabilities.
Palmer: Exactly right, Grant. That tracks with what we hear from our customers. During “regular” times, businesses use data and risk modeling to develop routine security measures: deploying additional security during peak shoplifting hours, implementing product-specific security for high-theft items, regularly inspecting security systems for functionality, and performing regular staff training. When it comes to “unique” times like holidays, nearby sporting events, or even natural disasters, they’ll implement special measures like increased security patrols, bag checks at entrances and exits, crowd control measures, and performing special staff training as needed. Balancing the strategic and tactical approaches ensures efficient resource deployment and avoids a reactive approach.
Drawve: In conclusion, it is crucial to consider both spatial and temporal factors in minimizing crime risk and optimizing security asset allocation. By recognizing and analyzing the temporal patterns of crime, organizations can strategically allocate resources and implement security measures more effectively, balancing routine risk reduction with tactical responses to unique events.