Highlights from the 2017 CAP Index Crime Risk Forecasting Validation Study

CAP Index, the leader in the crime risk forecasting arena, conducted a study to test the strength of the correlation between CAP Index Scores and crime frequencies occurring across the United States.

Nearly eight million address-specific crimes were assessed from 2014–2016, and the following crime categories, as reported by the police departments, were analyzed: Arson, Assault, Burglary, Drug Offenses, Fraud and Forgery, Homicide, Larceny, Motor Vehicle Theft, Robbery, Sexual Offenses, and Vandalism. Each incident was assigned a CAP Index Score and grouped into one of four CAP Index Risk Categories.

Highlights from the report include:

  • The vast majority of all crimes occurred in socially disorganized neighborhoods, as measured by CAP Index Scores.
  • The percentages of crimes that were reported at locations with above-average CAP Index scores (100+) were:
    • 91.0% for All Crimes
    • 93.0% for Crimes against Persons
    • 90.4% for Crimes against Property
  • The vast majority of crimes against persons occurred in socially disorganized neighborhoods, as measured by CAP Index scores.
  • The percentages of crimes that were reported at locations with above-average CAP Index scores (100+) were:
    • 92.8% for Assault
    • 98.1% for Homicide
    • 97.8% for Robbery
    • 82.1% for Sexual Offenses

To download the full report, visit https://capindex.com/crime-risk-forecasting-validation-study-report-request/.

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