The Evolution of the US Retail Theft Crisis

Whether you’re a retailer or a consumer (or both), you’re experiencing the direct and indirect effects of increased theft and violence—and you’re also paying for the increased costs as a result.

Make no mistake, I’m not a criminologist and I’m not a sociologist. And some of what I’ll cover here certainly crosses over into those disciplines. But I am a retail safety and security professional. I’d like to talk about the evolution of what’s happened and what’s happening in the retail industry from my perspective.

What Is happening? And Is it Just Retail?

The National Retail Federation (NRF) published an annual report in the past based on a survey of its retail members that outlines various data related to theft, fraud, and inventory shortage. On average, the participating retailers reported an annual inventory shortage of 1.6 percent (percent of sales).

That’s aligned with what we’ve estimated for decades—what I call the 60/40 rule—that about 60 percent of losses are due to process failures and internal theft, and about 40 percent of losses are due to external theft. There is not one single factor to blame; it’s been a bit of a slow-brewing, perfect storm of sorts that has created a ripe environment for thieves (professional and amateur) to take advantage of the situation in many, but not all, cities and states.

Theft is not new—it’s ever present. We could go back even further, but let’s look at the last ten years or so. Some of these topics I’m about to cover are intertwined on the timeline and intertwined with each other and are not necessarily in any chronological order.

1. Change in theft and bail laws: Slowly, state laws on theft started to change to reduce the dollar amounts, reduce the severity of crime and punishment, reduce or eliminate bail amounts, or a combination of all. This could be attributed to many factors, including overcrowding of jails and prisons Example: My home state, California, passed CA Prop 47 in 2014. Part of that change included increasing misdemeanor theft from under $400 to under $950. Some drug laws were also changed, reducing felonies to misdemeanors. This was a double-edged sword because drugs and theft are intertwined.
2. Many retailers stopped apprehending shoplifters: This slow change had to do with several factors, including increased risk of injury and death to loss prevention employees, and increased risk of lawsuits for false arrest or injury to the suspect. I started my loss prevention career (the career unbeknownst to me at the time), making apprehensions at Macy’s, and through those first several years, I didn’t have to think about getting killed at work. Getting in fights or being seriously injured? Sure. Someone pulling a gun? Maybe. A gun only happened once. But we’re living in different times now.
3. Law enforcement numbers dwindle: Retirement and turnover were slowly on the rise, but were accelerated by the 2020 pandemic and the George Floyd incident. This resulted in a surge of resignations and retirements in 2021, 2022, and 2023. The number of law enforcement recruits also saw a drastic decrease, and law enforcement is still trying to recover.
4. Longer response times: My third point is directly related to the fact that law enforcement can’t keep up with calls for service in many major cities, and property crimes like theft are low on the priority list.
5. Less prosecution: Connected to the change in theft laws, prosecutors, like law enforcement, had to prioritize cases. With not enough teeth in the laws and punishment for theft, prosecutors’ hands are somewhat tied. Some of that is slowly starting to change. The King County District Attorney’s Office in Washington and Yolo County DA’s Office in California (next to Sacramento) are taking strides in partnerships with retailers, local law enforcement, and the Retail Industry Leaders Association (RILA), and are starting to prioritize the larger theft cases.
6. Retailers reporting fewer crimes to law enforcement: Retail LP teams—many of which are practicing a hands-off approach—are not reporting all theft cases and crimes to law enforcement, which, of course, is a mistake. Paired with reduced response times and even less prosecution for cases, some retailers are either not reporting the one-off thefts, or they are waiting to aggregate information on the repeat offenders.
7. COVID-19 pandemic: The psychological effects of being bottled up and restricted from doing normal things were perhaps a factor. Job losses and financial strains, social and racial tensions, more attention to police brutality, demonstrations and looting, masks and this feeling of anonymity, thieves becoming bolder and more brazen, and smash-and-grabs (not a new phenomenon—just more popular), have all had an impact.
8. Weapons and force: I can’t speak to the exact “why” and the social economics of why more weapons have been used in thefts. Of course, there is the topic of gun laws, which I’m not here to discuss or debate. But crooks and thugs are willing to threaten and take life for property in a heartbeat. You’ve seen news stories of Portland, Seattle, San Francisco, and other cities where isolated pockets have very violent crimes, armed robberies, armed auto burglaries, and carjackings.
9. Organized retail crime: I’m not trying to minimize ORC, but it’s overused and an incorrect label some of the time. Not all thefts are ORC—many are just thugs and opportunistic groups of youths willing to gamble on not getting caught. More sophisticated? Some are. Organized in their efforts to coordinate, plan, and execute the crime? Sure. But the more sophisticated ORC operations have ties to larger, more nefarious criminal activity—fencing, money laundering, credit card and gift card fraud, drugs, weapons, sex trafficking and human trafficking, and terrorism. The root of theft and ORC is money and its pursuit. Some ORC groups are simple in that they steal to make a profit, and it goes no further than that, with no ties to larger criminal activities. ORC groups existed in the ’80s, ’90s, and 2000s, and will continue to operate.
10. Online marketplaces: A vacuum created space for a virtual flea market, ripe for peddling and fencing stolen goods. So many have sprung up in the past several years—you can sell whatever you want online. It used to just be Craigslist and eBay, but we’ve now seen the emergence of Amazon, Facebook Marketplace, OfferUp, and dozens more—all mostly unchecked and unregulated. A few are retail- and law enforcement-friendly and will assist in shutting down complex fencing operations or the simple one-person operation of stealing and selling power tools. Legislation (like the INFORM Act) has been introduced to help hold these online marketplaces accountable for regulating their sellers and investigating those selling stolen goods.
11. Social media: Social media is a blessing and a curse. It gives us more information at lightning speed—news, mindless videos, social media influencers, and sites dedicated to not-so-great things. Good or bad, it’s a platform that is also used to promote crime and criminal activity—you can learn how and where to steal from, retailer apprehension policies, and which stores are easier to steal from.
12. Normalization of criminal behavior: Is there perhaps a slight normalization of theft? Could it be that the more the media and social media promote some of the crimes for sensationalism or glorification, the more copycats will arise? The fewer arrests and prosecutions, the higher the theft rates? Ride the train through Oakland and parts of the East Bay, and it’s like a war zone of abandoned and parted-out stolen vehicles—hundreds of them. There’s a lot to unpack on the issue of abandoned cars in Oakland, but it’s definitely a bit of the broken window theory at work.

A Turning of the Tide?

I see things starting to change, and here are several examples:

1. Oregon Senate Bill 340: Organized Retail Theft, aggregate theft of $5,000 or more in 180 days.
2. Washington State Initiative 2113 has retailers slightly encouraged as proponents have said the measure is needed to reduce property crime and car thefts, in particular.
3. California Prop 47 repeal/amendments through Prop 36. It’s not perfect, but it’s a start.
4. Several other states made changes to their laws in the past few years.
5. The Integrity, Notification, and Fairness in Online Retail Marketplaces for Consumers Act—or the INFORM Consumers Act—went into effect in June 2023.
6. NRF’s Fight Retail Crime Day and its work with lawmakers to help support the passing of the Combating Organized Retail Crime Act (CORCA), which aims to increase federal enforcement of organized retail theft.
7. RILA’s partnership with the National District Attorneys Association (NDAA) and their Vibrant Communities Initiative, and their National Store Walk Initiative to promote store walks with retailers and prosecutors.

Now What? What Can I Do?

As a security practitioner, stay vigilant and continue to harden targets. Conduct physical security assessments and analyze gaps. Use CPTED (Crime Prevention through Environmental Design) principles. Talk to employees. Keep the dialogue going. Share this article with them. Share this article with friends and family when the topic of theft comes up at your next gathering.

When it comes to reducing theft, we must be willing to evolve our strategies, systems, and attitudes to create a safer and more secure environment for everyone.

“The measure of intelligence is the ability to change.” —Albert Einstein

Vic Jacinto works for IKEA US as the US safety and security manager. He has been working in the retail loss prevention industry since 1991 and has been at IKEA for almost twenty-five years. Prior to IKEA, he worked in loss prevention for both Neiman Marcus and Macy’s. Before that, he worked in sales and support positions at other small retailers for several years.