A new study from Juniper Research has found that cumulative merchant losses to online payment fraud globally between 2023 and 2027 will exceed $343 billion. As a comparison, this equates to over 350 percent of Apple’s reported net income in the 2021 fiscal year, showing the massive extent of these losses.
The research found that in order to combat rising fraud, fraud prevention vendors must orchestrate the right mix of verification tools—at the most effective point in the customer journey—to best protect users, but that this will require significant capabilities to achieve.
“Fundamentally, no two online transactions are the same, so the way transactions are secured cannot follow a one-size-fits-all solution,” said Report Author Nick Maynard. “Payment fraud detection and prevention vendors must build a multitude of verification capabilities, and intelligently orchestrate different solutions depending on circumstances, in order to correctly protect both merchants and users.”
The research identified physical goods purchases as the largest single source of losses, accounting for 49 percent of cumulative online payment fraud losses globally over the next five years, growing by 110 percent. Lax address verification processes in developing markets are a major fraud risk, with fraudsters targeting physical goods specifically due to their resell potential. As such, it recommends merchants adopt strong anti-fraud measures, including multiple sources of address verification and multi-factor authentication to reduce fraudulent incidents for physical good merchants.