As many of you that have followed me over the years know, a side passion is continuously updating and delivering my keynote presentation, “The Disruptive Future of Retail.” In the last twelve months, I had the pleasure to present the latest views to many retailers and industry groups in North and South America, Asia, and Europe.
By 2030, Statista projects a global retail industry valued at nearly $36 trillion. E-commerce will continue to grow in the run up to the new decade reaching globally nearly $8 trillion by 2028, accounting for only 22.5% of total retail sales.
Stores will not die, but they will also not remain static. The digital acceleration will continue and the changes ahead promise greater consumer loyalty and engagement. Technology will continue to play a strategic role with fast adopters having a competitive advantage.
The industry will face some challenges, but growing middle classes in large countries such as China and India will keep retail growing into the next decade. Three disruptive trends will move the industry positively forward.
Hyper-Connected Retail Ecosystem
By 2030, whatever you want to call it—omnichannel, harmonized retail, or phygital integration of the shopping activities between online and offline experiences—will increasingly be seamless. COVID-19 forever changed our shopping journey with the store being one component of many ways consumers now prefer to shop.
In the shopping journey split highlight above, note that 85% of all retail transactions have a store component associated with them and that will not change anytime soon. What is changing and rapidly is where consumers are doing research for shopping inspiration. Those aged 18-34 go to TikTok while the rest go first to a retailer’s online store. GenZs are looking for instant restocks, retail subscriptions, and paid VIP services.
Technology will be the differentiator in the 2030 hyper-connected retail ecosystem and the foundation seeds continue to build from the 2025 technology priorities.
In the 2030 store, everything will be connected, including many of the physical products being sold. Inventory accuracy will be table stakes to a hyper connected retail ecosystem. RFID is already leading the charge at the product level with retail leaders (those growing 10 percent plus the previous year) adopting it more than laggards. Computer vision will deliver more big data for improved operations. Retail media networks (R.M. Networks) will increase profitability and more effectively engage consumers.
AI-Driven Hyper Personalization
At the core of retail was and always will be the consumer. The challenge for retailers today is that consumers because of smartphones are much more educated in shaping their preferred shopping journey.
A truly successful retail model will focus on strategies that create brand ambassadors of both store associates and consumers. Artificial intelligence will be central in more immersive consumer experiences and increasing the productivity of store associates.
Retail leaders (those growing 10 percent-plus the previous year) are focusing on AI as a major priority in 2025.
Two-hundred-sixty-seven percent of retail winners rate cleaning, training, store AI data, higher than laggards. Retailers will leverage AI to gain deep insights into individual customer preferences, purchase history and behavior
By 2030, AI data will fuel more accurate targeted recommendations and individualized offers, and will start responding real-time to shoppers across the hyper-connected retail ecosystem. The same technology will be put into the hands of store associates the higher productivity customer engagement improving tools to increase sales.
Beyond Selling Products Across Retail Channels
Often in my “Disruptive Future of Retail”, I speak on the genius of Amazon in building profitable business models beyond what they sell in their online store. In their last fiscal year, Amazon surpassed $100 billion from sales of their cloud services to other companies. They generate $56 billion from advertising and another $44 billion from subscription services.
By 2030, Bain & Company projects that half of retail profits could come from “beyond trade” diversification rather than traditional product selling that dominates today. Retail media networks are a perfect place to explore. According to eMarketer, between 2024 and 2028, just US retail media ad spending will increase 88.5 percent to nearly $98 billion. In their last fiscal year, even Walmart crossed over $4 billion in advertising revenue.
Meeting the Challenges of the Next Retail Decade
The year 2030 is not that far off. In my next article, I will recap the three megatrends that have disrupted the retail industry since World War II and unveil the fourth. This fourth megatrend arrived much faster that the first two, confirming that technology cycles are accelerating the transformation of the retail industry.
The hyper-connected retail ecosystem, AI driven hyper personalization, and beyond trade opportunities are my primary selections of trends that will disrupt the start of the next decade. There are others that I considered including sustainability and the circular economy, much more nimble supply chains, social commerce, continued consumer stress seeking higher value for less money, and blockchain.
This article focused on the positives, but new technologies have also led to some negatives. Retail theft continues to increase and is getting more violent in some countries. Many of the new technologies actually make it easier to steal. AI carries risks that we are still struggling to understand.
I am optimistic that we will work through all these challenges and build a higher growth, safer retail industry. We are all consumers. We vote where, when, and how we shop. It is up to each of us as a global community to speak loudly to express our preferences. I am confident we will positively meet the challenges of the next retail decade.
What do you think? Which trends will stand out in your view in the year 2030 for the retail industry?