Data released by the US Census Bureau shows retail sales increased again in September as employment grew and inflation and interest rates fell, said National Retail Federation Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz.
“While there have been some signs of tightening in consumer spending, September’s numbers show consumers are willing to spend where they see value,” Kleinhenz said. “September sales come amid the recent trend of payroll gains and other positive economic signs. Clearly, consumers continue to carry the economy, and conditions for the retail sector remain favorable as we move into the holiday season.”
The Census Bureau said overall retail sales in September were up 0.4% seasonally adjusted month over month and up 1.7% unadjusted year over year. That compared with increases of 0.1% month over month and 2.2% year over year in August.
September’s core retail sales as defined by the NRF—based on the Census data but excluding automobile dealers, gasoline stations, and restaurants—were up 0.7% seasonally adjusted month over month and up 2.4% unadjusted year over year. Core retail sales were up 3.3% year over year for the first nine months of the year, in line with the NRF’s forecast for 2024 retail sales to grow between 2.5% and 3.5% over 2023. NRF is forecasting that 2024 holiday sales will also increase between 2.5% and 3.5% over the same time last year.
Last week, the CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor, powered by Affinity Solutions, reported that core retail sales were down a slight 0.28% seasonally adjusted month over month in September but up 0.94% year over year. That compared with increases of 0.17% month over month and 1.93% year over year in August. Unlike survey-based numbers collected by the Census Bureau, the Retail Monitor uses actual, anonymized credit and debit card purchase data compiled by Affinity Solutions that gives more accurate results in real time that do not need to be revised monthly or annually.