This is part four of our conversation with Walter Palmer and Dr. Grant Drawve, PhD, of CAP Index. In this discussion, we examine how the holidays impact crime risk in retail.
LPM: Following the overall theme of this Ask the Experts series, what should we expect to see during the holiday season in relation to crime occurrence?
Dr. Grant Drawve: In our previous discussions, we covered how both time and place matter when it comes to crime. With the holiday season, we add something else: It’s a time of year when people and businesses significantly alter everyday patterns. From Halloween to New Year’s Eve, people travel and shop more frequently, participate in festivities, and generally spend considerable time away from home. At the same time, retailers have substantially more traffic, process vastly more sales and returns, and sometimes need to hire less experienced temporary sales and security to manage the increased volume. These changes create an environment where both property and personal safety are at risk.
In addition to changes in routine, the holidays bring unique stressors. The pressure to buy gifts, manage financial concerns and family expectations, and attend social gatherings brings heightened emotions. Resulting conflicts can escalate to violence and a noticeable increase in crimes against people in stores and homes. Additionally, the anonymity provided by the influx of holiday shoppers and the ease of online transactions gives rise to scams—including fake charity solicitations or fraudulent online deals.
During the holidays, empty homes—whether due to travel, shopping, or social outings—become attractive targets for burglars. The surge in online shopping and spike in package deliveries present easy opportunities for porch pirates. Changes during the holiday season, along with the continuing impact of time and place, can alter crime risks for businesses, residences, and individuals.
LPM: Can you give an example of what these relationships might look like in a specific community?
Drawve: Sure, let’s look at the Soulard neighborhood in St. Louis, Missouri, a destination city for sports venues, theater, shopping, and haunted houses (if you know, you know). The neighborhood hosts many Halloween-themed attractions starting in September, followed by Thanksgiving and Christmas holiday sights, tours, and parties around the breweries and other local businesses in that neighborhood. Robberies, simple assaults, pickpocketing, and theft from motor vehicles have occurred on average more frequently in the neighborhood from September through December than in the preceding eight months. Events during this time of year attract people to Soulard in ways that create criminal opportunities beyond the norm.
LPM: Since there is a shift in people’s routine activities, how can retailers act on these insights?
Walter Palmer: I think retailers understand this pretty well through experience and have adapted by implementing heightened security measures including increased physical security presence, e.g., additional guards in stores and parking lots, or mobile security towers for broader surveillance. These ‘target hardening’ strategies deter potential offenders by making the cost of committing a crime higher than the perceived benefit.
However, understanding and anticipating the shift in routine activities is just as crucial. Retailers can take proactive steps by educating their customers about potential risks, like the dangers of leaving valuables in plain sight or the importance of avoiding scams. Simple actions like this can enhance the overall safety of the shopping experience, making their locations more attractive to consumers who prioritize safety during holiday shopping.
Retailers should also consider how the stress and hurried nature of the season can contribute to crime. By creating a more relaxed and orderly shopping and return environment through better crowd management or stress relief initiatives, retailers can reduce the likelihood of altercations at their premises. A very visible sign of these efforts is to increase and adequately train store associates to assist in multiple areas from stocking to checkout to returns, trying to improve the shopping experience for patrons.
Drawve: During the holiday season, time and place still impact the
risk of crime, but a unique and powerful factor—shifts in people’s routines—is a key influence on crime. In the coming months, vehicles, residences, and packages will be left vulnerable. Increased stress and encounters with strangers contribute to heightened risks of altercations and scams. Understanding these dynamics can help retailers and consumers prepare and protect against seasonal crime spikes.
Drawve is the VP of Research and Innovation for CAP Index—the pioneer and leader in crime risk forecasting—and has over ten years of experience in applied environmental criminology and crime analysis research. Palmer is CAP Index’s COO/EVP, with over thirty-five years of hands-on experience in the AP industry. Drawve and Palmer can be reached at gdrawve@capindex.com and wpalmer@capindex.com
