Retail sales slowed in June amid continued consumer concerns about the impact of government policies on the economy, according to the CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor, powered by Affinity Solutions and released by the National Retail Federation (NRF).
“June’s numbers indicate that prolonged uncertainty surrounding the economy, tariffs, and trade policy could be pushing consumers to adopt a ‘wait-and-see’ approach with their household budgets,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said. “This was the first monthly decline since February, and spending was down across almost all sectors. Economic fundamentals haven’t been disrupted yet, and shoppers still have the ability to spend on priorities, but the economy is gradually slowing, and there has been an impact on the psyche of consumers. While passage of the ‘Big Beautiful Bill’ is clearly supportive of economic growth, unresolved and restrictive trade policies remain a significant headwind.”
Total retail sales—excluding automobiles and gasoline—were down 0.33 percent month over month (seasonally adjusted) but up 3.19 percent year over year (unadjusted) in June, according to the Retail Monitor. That compared with increases of 0.49 percent month over month and 4.44 percent year over year in May.
The Retail Monitor’s calculation of core retail sales (excluding restaurants, automobile dealers, and gasoline stations) showed a decline of 0.32 percent month over month in June but an increase of 3.36 percent year over year. That followed increases of 0.23 percent month over month and 4.2 percent year over year in May.
For the first six months of the year, total sales were up 4.66 percent year over year, and core sales were up 4.93 percent. The month-over-month declines in June were the first since February, when both total and core sales fell 0.22 percent from January.
Unlike survey-based estimates collected by the US Census Bureau, the Retail Monitor uses actual, anonymized credit and debit card purchase data compiled by Affinity Solutions and does not require monthly or annual revisions.
June sales increased in seven of nine categories on a year-over-year basis, led by digital products, sporting goods stores, and health and personal care stores. However, sales declined in all but one category on a month-over-month basis. Highlights from key sectors include:
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Digital products (such as electronic books and games) were up 0.26 percent month over month (seasonally adjusted) and up 24.11 percent year over year (unadjusted).
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Sporting goods, hobby, music, and book stores were down 0.13 percent month over month (seasonally adjusted) but up 8.52 percent year over year (unadjusted).
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Health and personal care stores were down 0.31 percent month over month (seasonally adjusted) but up 3.47 percent year over year (unadjusted).
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General merchandise stores were down 0.15 percent month over month (seasonally adjusted) but up 3.18 percent year over year (unadjusted).
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Grocery and beverage stores were down 0.13 percent month over month (seasonally adjusted) but up 2.59 percent year over year (unadjusted).
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Clothing and accessories stores were down 0.22 percent month over month (seasonally adjusted) but up 2.71 percent year over year (unadjusted).
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Electronics and appliance stores were down 1.03 percent month over month (seasonally adjusted) but up 2.43 percent year over year (unadjusted).
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Furniture and home furnishings stores were down 1.04 percent month over month (seasonally adjusted) and down 1.14 percent year over year (unadjusted).
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Building and garden supply stores were down 0.76 percent month over month (seasonally adjusted) and down 5.33 percent year over year (unadjusted).
