Supermarket Leverages CAP to Justify Security Budget, Show ROI, and Reduce Shrink by 15 to 20 Percent (CAP Index)

Using the CAP Index® Custom Crime Risk Modeling solution, a large supermarket chain was able to identify at-risk locations, reallocate and prioritize resources, quantify operating costs, reduce loss, and improve safety perceptions across 2,800 stores nationwide.

The Challenge

With 74,000 employees and 14.5 million customers a week, there’s no one-size-fits-all solution that could provide ample security to all locations and still fit within a fixed budget. The goal was to optimize, prioritize, and justify the company’s security investments—equipment, use of guards, and so forth—to maximize budget and the security of customers and employees.

The Solution: Custom Risk Modeling from CAP Index

Successfully allocating resources starts with knowing which stores are at risk. CAP Index is the industry-leader in forecasting crime risk by location. By combining CAP’s data with the supermarket’s own internal incident data, the company created a truly customized risk model that was specifically tailored to its corporate goals and objectives. This allowed it to accurately rank its locations and identify which were at risk.

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Results Highlights

Quantifying Operating Costs. The model established the cost-to-operate in an area to serve as a baseline for identifying locations performing below or above average.

Prioritizing Investment and Reducing Loss. Leveraging the insight from the model, a pilot program was instituted that showed by upgrading specific equipment in elevated risk locations, shrink is reduced by 15 to 20 percent.

Reduced Crime Incidents. After ranking stores by CAP risk and reallocating security resources accordingly, the company found that instances of crime reduced by 50 to 60 percent.

Improved Safety Perception. Reduced crime makes locations nicer for both employees and customers. After implementation, personal safety perceptions have improved by 35 percent.

Optimized Employee Training. To get employees to help deter crime instead of simply react to it, the model prioritized a behavioral training program at elevated risk locations.

Bottom Line

“By utilizing a leader like CAP Index, we are now using accurate, objective data to take a lot of the guesswork out and really deliver a smarter, safer, and more cost-effective security solution that has tangible ROI. I have no doubts this will be an industry standard practice in a few years or even sooner,” said a loss prevention executive at the supermarket chain.

To discuss how CAP Index can help your organization, email askcap (at) capindex (dot) com, call 800-227-7475, or visit

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